Chou-en-Lai’s remark about the French Revolution (either 1789; or 1968) when asked about how it had fared is perhaps typical of the man; and alarmingly concise and accurate when you also remember that he was a military man as well as being a politician. How many times in the past two-three hundred years have political leaders led, massaged or demanded action; usually military: which has ended up with exactly the reverse of that which was hoped for by those same politicians.
I can think of only two Declarations of War which were, upon reflection, necessary: one was ours in 1939 against Germany: the other was ours (again) against the French and its dictator Bonaparte.
Imagine what would have been the outcome if a political leader, such as Bush, or Blair, or Cameron (although a political pygmy, he was unfortunately, our prime minister) had been given both advice which mirrored that action taken, as well as a considered advice to do nothing; and a study of the possible outcomes of both actions? Let us look at three decisions which had vastly different outcomes to those envisaged before that decision was made.
Continue reading “It really is too soon to tell.”